Race Against Time: Alzheimer's Epidemic Hits as America Ages

Alzheimer's Association
Tuesday, 21 March 2000

A new analysis of national census data released today by the Alzheimer's Association projects that at current rates, the number of Americans with the disease will grow by 350 percent by mid-century, with the epidemic even worse in states with large numbers of baby boomers.

The only way to avoid the epidemic, research scientists say, is to accelerate the search for a way to delay, prevent or cure the disease. "Large scale trials are expensive -- $15 million to $20 million each -- and they take at least five years to get results," said Dr. Steven DeKosky, chairman of the Medical and Scientific Advisory Council of the Alzheimer's Association.

Scientists now know that brain cells begin to change 10 years or more before the symptoms of Alzheimer's appear, he said. "We do not have enough time left to do these five-year trials one at a time," DeKosky said. "Scientists have many more good ideas for effective treatments than they can test with current funding."

The new census analysis was released after a hearing on Alzheimer's disease before the Labor, Education and HHS subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), chairman of the subcommittee, and Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA), the ranking member, joined DeKosky and Maureen Reagan at a news conference after the hearing. Maureen Reagan is an Alzheimer's Association board member whose father, former President Ronald Reagan, was diagnosed with the disease in 1994.

"An estimated 14 million baby boomers are living with a sentence of Alzheimer's disease today," DeKosky said. He noted that the baby boomers enter the age of highest risk in about 2020, when the oldest of them approach 75, and by 2030 the total number of Americans with the disease will double from current totals.

The population analysis for the states projects that in 2025, California and Florida will have the most people with Alzheimer's -- 820,000 in California and 712,000 in Florida. They are followed by Texas with 552,000, New York 431,000, Pennsylvania 349,000, Ohio 308,000, Illinois 295,000, North Carolina 253,000, Michigan 237,000, New Jersey 216,100 and Washington 206,000.

"Because of past federal investment in research, scientists have been able to unlock the basic mechanisms of Alzheimer's disease, offering hope to future generations," said Maureen Reagan.

"I know that my father would want to commend the Congress for going beyond talk and increasing substantially the investment in research. I encourage you to continue that support for research and to add to it support for caregivers. Because even if we were to come up with a way to prevent this disease tomorrow, more than 4 million Americans like my dad will still be in need of care."

"For my father and Nancy and all the individuals and caregivers across America who are praying for help, I plead with you to re-double your efforts this year. We need you to increase the research funding on Alzheimer's by $100 million. We need you to fund caregiver support programs. We need your courage and steadfastness, not only this year, but in years to come, to help bring this disease to its knees. We must be the last generation of American families to live without hope. And with your help we will be," she added.

"Alzheimer's disease doesn't make special arrangements for Presidents or first ladies or anyone else for that matter," said Reagan. "When it takes hold it follows its own course of destruction, frequently ravaging not only its direct victim, but also the caregivers and loved ones along with it."

Without a research breakthrough, the Alzheimer's epidemic alone will cost enough to bankrupt Medicare. At present, annual per capita expenditures for Medicare beneficiaries with Alzheimer's disease are $7,682, almost 70 percent more than the average of $4,524 for other beneficiaries. And that's true even though Medicare pays for almost no long-term care.

"The best scientific minds have been brought into the race for the answers to Alzheimer's disease," said Alzheimer's Association Vice President Stephen McConnell. "A solid research infrastructure is in place. The paths for further investigation are clear. The missing ingredient is the money needed to realize the scientific opportunities before us."

The state-by-state data were compiled in conjunction with the Alzheimer's Association's 12th Annual Public Policy Forum, which drew 400 family members and volunteers to Washington D.C. from the Association's national network of chapters. They spent today meeting with their senators and representatives.

"The payoff on that research investment will be enormous," McConnell said. "By delaying onset of Alzheimer's disease for even five years, we will save the country at least $50 billion in annual health care costs. Even a one-month delay in nursing home placement is estimated to save $1 billion a year." Both DeKosky and McConnell stressed that increased research investment now is the key to saving both the people and the dollars.

For more information, or to contact Alzheimer's Association, see their website at: www.alz.org