American Jewish Committee Report Warns of Dangers Stemming from Erosion of Sanctions against IraqAmerican Jewish Committee The erosion of the international community's resolve to maintain sanctions against Iraq poses serious threats to regional stability in the Middle East and to American interests, according to a new American Jewish Committee report (www.ajc.org) "Since the suspension of the UN weapons inspection regime in 1998, Saddam Hussein has vigorously renewed Iraq's program to develop nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction," says the AJC report. "As of last December, Iraq was allowed to sell unlimited amounts of oil," further weakening what had been a firm policy of international sanctions enforced after the Gulf War ended Iraq's occupation of Kuwait ten years ago.  The AJC report, "Iraq Policy at a Crossroads: Saddam's Threat, the Future of Sanctions, and Options for the New Administration," presents a detailed analysis of Iraqi policies toward the U.S., Israel and other Arab countries, the evisceration of international sanctions imposed against Iraq, and courses of action the Bush Administration might pursue to contain Iraq's strategic ambitions. Dr. Ofra Bengio of Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies authored the report for AJC. "Modifying the existing sanctions regime to focus on a single task, namely reinforcing credible, intrusive international inspections of Iraq's WMD program," is essential to containing Iraq, writes Dr. Bengio. "Restoring international consensus will be no easy task, but the alternatives are far more dangerous." Emboldened in the last year by the rise in oil prices and the abrupt halt to the Arab-Israeli peace process, Saddam now is poised to carry out his "vengeance" against Israel and the U.S. while taking further steps to eliminate the sanctions, writes Dr. Bengio. The report concludes that Saddam is likely in the near term to accelerate efforts to: - Lift the UN-imposed sanctions. The AJC report warns that Iraq's persistent threats against Israel should not be viewed as mere rhetoric. "In order to realize its leadership ambitions in the Arab world, the Arab-Israeli conflict provides, in Saddam's view, the most fertile arena available," writes Dr. Bengio. "If and when his sons succeed Saddam, the situation will hardly improve, and may become even more dangerous." The report notes that launching the war against Iran in 1980, invading Kuwait in 1990, and firing missiles against Israel in 1991, "were not impulsive actions, but were planned well in advance, in order to rectify what Iraq perceived as historical injustices, extract revenge and alter the regional strategic balance." The advent of the George W. Bush administration, which came into office with an announced antipathy to Saddam combined with a general preference to avoid using sanctions as a policy tool, may be viewed by Baghdad as an opportunity to further undermine the sanctions, and also gain a measure of revenge against the new president's father, states the AJC report. "Though Saddam has a reputation for recklessness and adventurism, he also is conniving and calculating, and therein lies his greatest danger," states the AJC report. "One cannot know for sure what kind of surprise Saddam has in store for George W. Bush, but it seems quite certain that Iraq would not limit itself to punishing America's regional allies, since according to Saddam, the relations between Baghdad and Washington have assumed the characteristics of a struggle between two nations standing on an equal footing," writes Dr. Bengio.
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