American Jewish Year Book Projects Large Decline in U.S. Jewish Population

American Jewish Committee
Monday, 11 September 2000

Assuming that current trends continue, total Jewish population in the United States is expected to shrink by one-third, to an estimated total of 3.8 million, by the year 2080, while Israel's Jewish population will likely double, reaching 10 million, contributing to an overall moderate increase in the total number – 15 million – of Jews worldwide.

These demographic projections are part of a pathbreaking, comprehensive study on Jewish population trends printed in the 100th edition of the American Jewish Year Book, published by the American Jewish Committee.

The article offers comprehensive projections for Jewish population in the United States and Israel, as well as in the former Soviet Union, Latin America, South Africa and other regions around the world. The study is in addition to the review of current Jewish population statistics that is an annual feature of the Year Book.

"We have an enormously rich collection of data, with profound implications for the American, Israeli and worldwide Jewish communities," said Lawrence Grossman, editor of the American Jewish Year Book.

The projections are included in the 2000 Year Book article, "Prospecting the Jewish Future: Population Projections, 2000-2080," authored by three respected demographers at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, Israel – Sergio DellaPergola, professor and head of the Division of Jewish Demography and Statistics, Uzi Rebuhn, and Mark Tolts.

Among the projections:

- Jewish population worldwide is expected to grow from 13.1 million in 2000, to 13.8 million by 2020, 14 million in 2030 and 15 million in 2080.

- Israel's Jewish population is expected to double over the next 80 years, increasing to about 6 million in 2020, slightly less than 8 million by 2050, and over 10 million in 2080.

- Current low fertility levels combined with an already old age composition will inevitably lead to shrinkage in the total number of Jews outside Israel. Diaspora Jewry will decline from 8.3 million in 2000, to 7.8 million in 2020, 6.5 million in 2050,and 5.3 million in 2080.

- In the United States, the Jewish population will drop from 5.7 million in 2000 to 5.6 million in 2020, to 4.7 million in 2050 and 3.8 million in 2080.

Thus, by the middle of the century an absolute majority of Jews will be living in Israel, according to the demographic projections. In addition, younger Jews will be increasingly concentrated in Israel, while greater percentages of older Jews will be in the Diaspora, primarily in Europe and the United States.

- Within the next two decades Israel will most likely be home to the absolute majority of the world's Jewish children. By 2080, 77 to 86 percent of all Jews under age 15 will be living in Israel. Today, some 45 percent of all Jews 15 years old or younger live in Israel.

- Because of its large size, the Jewish community of North America (United States and Canada) will remain the home of the absolute majority of Diaspora Jewish children.

- Depending on different fertility assumptions, the percentage of children under 15 is expected to range between 21 and 26 percent of the Jewish population in Israel by 2020, and between 11 and 16 percent of all Diaspora communities.

- The elderly population aged 65 and over, will range between 14 and 16 percent in Israel and between 24 and 27 percent in the Diaspora.

- By 2080, North American Jewry will host the second largest share of elderly Jews, following European Jewry, which will be more than 50 percent elderly.

- By the year 2080 more than 40 percent of the Diaspora will be 65 and over.

These projections, the authors point out, could be affected by changes in fertility rates, and the three demographers offer in their Year Book article other scenarios for population growth based on lower or higher than current average fertility levels. But the general trends of shrinking population in the Diaspora and a pronounced population shift to Israel remain constant.

The Jewish population in European countries and in the former Soviet Union will diminish more significantly due to their older age composition and lower levels of fertility. The once large presence of Jews in Russia and the other republics of the former Soviet Union is headed for extinction during this century.

- Europe, not including the former Soviet Union, is expected to show a total population of between 971,000 and 1,030,000 in 2020, between 659,000 and 954,000 in 2050, and between 409,000 and 883,000 in 2080.

- French Jewry will experience a slow but steady decline from 520,000 in 2000, to 480,000 in 2020, to 380,000 in 2050, and 300,000 in 2080.

- The Jewish population in the United Kingdom will decline to 240,000 in 2020, 180,00 in 2050, and 140,000 in 2080.

- Jews in Germany will experience continuing growth to a peak of about 110,000 in 2020, followed by a decrease which would reflect exhaustion of the migration reservoir in the former Soviet Union and German Jewry's high average age and extremely low fertility.

- Former Soviet Union: Total Jewish population declined from 1.5 million in 1989 to 440,000 in 2000, due primarily to mass emigration. Assuming current fertility and emigration rates continue, Jewish population will continue to decline sharply to between 160,000 and 166,000 in 2010, 60,000 and 64,000 in 2020, 22,000 and 24,000 in 2030; 2,000 and 3,000 in 2050 – and virtually none by 2080.

Implications for Future: The three demographers conclude in their American Jewish Year Book article that the projected population trends will have profound ramifications for Israel-Diaspora relations and for Jewish communal services, such as education and health care, in the Diaspora.

- The imbalance of the Jewish age composition in most countries outside of Israel could become so overwhelming as to endanger the effective functioning of Jewish community services.

- The chief responsibility for ensuring adequate Jewish education and cultural continuity among future generations will gradually pass from the Diaspora to Israel.

- With a growing share of world Jewry residing in Israel, Israeli society will be asked increasingly to rely on its own productive and intellectual resources, and less on the material and moral help that has long come from the Diaspora.

- Israel will increasingly have to take up a supportive role in relation to shrinking and aging Jewish community elsewhere.

- North American Jewry, long the backbone of the world Jewish community system, might find itself more concerned with internal needs and less available to aid other Jewish communities.

For more information, or to contact American Jewish Committee, see their website at: www.ajc.org