Iran's Weapons Programs Threaten U.S.

American Jewish Committee
Friday, 23 June 2000

The American Jewish Committee is warning in a new report that the United States probably cannot stop Iran from acquiring nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, but it can continue to constrain Iranian capabilities to reduce risks to U.S. forces and allies in the Middle East.

"This study is a chilling reminder of the profound dangers posed by the Islamic fundamentalist regime in Tehran," said David A. Harris, executive director of the American Jewish Committee. "Responsible governments must continue to deny Iran the access to technology its leaders so eagerly crave to generate deadly mischief."

Iran's limited financial resources, its dependence on foreign technology and technical expertise, and constraints imposed by Western technology-transfer controls have slowed the programs, according to the AJC report, Iran and Weapons of Mass Destruction .

"Any country truly committed to acquiring NBC weapons will eventually obtain them," says the AJC report's author, Dr. Seth Carus, who is a senior research professor at the National Defense University's Center for Counterproliferation Research.

"Unless significant changes occur in Iran, it is only a matter of time before Iran has an effective arsenal with deliverable nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons capable of reaching Israel and other U.S. allies in the region," Dr Carus adds.

AJC has called for economic and political sanctions to prevent Iran from gaining resources needed to finance the acquisition of potentially destabilizing weaponry, and for strict controls on the transfer to Iran of technology with potential military applications. (AJC Statement on Iran, www.ajc.org)

While details of the weapons development program are not completely known, Dr. Carus makes the following observations:

- Iran could produce a nuclear weapon within seven to 15 years.
- Iran is developing anthrax and other biological weapon agents.
- Iran's sincerity in honoring international accords it signed, such as the Chemical Weapons Convention, is in doubt.
- Iran continues to rely on technical and material assistance from China, Russia and North Korea.
- Iran is making significant progress toward developing a long-range missile, the Shahab-3, which could threaten U.S. forces and allies in the region.
- Given the high risks of underestimating the threat from Iran, it is probably prudent to assume that Iran will possess a missile capable of striking U.S. cities by 2010.

"The United States needs to prepare to deal with the implications of Iranian possession of NBC weapons and their associated delivery systems," states Dr. Carus, who recommends that the U.S. work with allies in the region to ensure that they are not left vulnerable to biological and chemical weapons attack."

For more information, or to contact American Jewish Committee, see their website at: www.ajc.org