World Jewish Population Growth Has Slowed

American Jewish Committee
Wednesday, 28 October 1998

World Jewish population growth has slowed, but apocalyptic forecasts of drastic decline are not in accord with the known data and trends, according to Sergio DellaPergola, the leading demographer of world Jewry and professor of Jewish Demography and Statistics in the A. Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

As reported in the 1998 American Jewish Year Book, just released by the American Jewish Committee, the size of world Jewry as of the end of 1996 (world demographic reporting always reflects a one- or two-year time lag) is assessed at 13,025,000.

The Institute's research findings are reported annually in the American Jewish Year Book. Prof. DellaPergola's comprehensive article -- "World Jewish Population" -- provides updated estimates of Jewish population in 94 countries, along with explanations of any changes in the figures since the previous report and analysis of trends, local and global.

The Institute of Contemporary Jewry is the only body in the world that conducts ongoing, systematic studies of Jewish population, following accepted social scientific methodology. This involves a continual process of monitoring and analyzing new data--countrywide censuses, independent community studies, Jewish community registers, birth and death records, immigration statistics, and so forth.

Prof. DellaPergola notes that world Jewry remains close to "zero population growth," with the higher birthrate of Israeli Jews barely compensating for the lower marriage and birthrates, extreme aging, and losses due to assimilation in Diaspora Jewish communities.

In a personal interview, Prof. DellaPergola projected that in the United States, for example, we may see a modest increase to 5.7 million in the next few years, followed by a decline to 5.6 million around 2020, and to slightly less than 5 million around 2050. The decline is based on low Jewish fertility, the aging of the Jewish population and resulting surplus of deaths over births, intermarriage, low conversion rate, and other factors.

Israel's Jewish population at the end of 1996 was 4,567,700, or 81 percent (802.9 per 1,000) of its total population. This represents an increase of 87,900 over the previous year (2 percent)--some 34,000 being the net gain from immigration, the balance resulting from natural increase. In contrast, the Diaspora Jewish population declined by 50,900, or .6 percent.

Over 95 percent of the world's Jews reside in 15 countries: United States, 5,700,000; Israel, 4,567,700; France, 524,000; Canada, 362,000; Russia, 340,000; United Kingdom, 291,000; Argentina, 205,000; Ukraine, 155,000; Brazil, 100,000; South Africa, 95,000; Australia, 94,000; Germany, 70,000; Hungary, 53,500; Mexico, 40,700; and Belgium, 31,700.

Within these countries, the majority of Jews tend to be concentrated in urban settings, some 70 percent of them residing in 20 metropolitan areas: Tel Aviv-- 2,400,000; New York--1,937,000; Haifa--650,000; Los Angeles--590,000; Jerusalem--550,000; Miami-Ft. Lauderdale--382,000; Paris--310,000; Philadelphia--280,000; Chicago--263,000; Boston--235,000; San Francisco--216,000; London--210,000; Buenos Aires--178,000; Washington, DC--166,000; Toronto--166,000; W. Palm Beach-Boca Raton--151,000; Be'er Sheva--143,000; Moscow--120,000; Baltimore--105,000; Montreal--100,000.

The job of estimating Jewish population throughout the world "is beset with difficulties and uncertainty," Prof. DellaPergola stresses.

He asserts that even with improved methods of data collection, users and analysts of the data must "come to terms with the paradox of the permanently provisional character of Jewish population estimates."

Given the difficulties of arriving at accurate estimates, says Prof. DellaPergola, the ideal would be to provide "a range"--a minimum and a maximum figure--for each country. However, this would be unwieldy for reporting the data, and so demographers of necessity must work with "estimates."

Events since the 1980s, including important geopolitical changes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, especially large-scale emigration from the former Soviet Union (FSU), have made it more difficult to compile accurate population figures. Added to this is the problem of defining who should be counted as a Jew in a time of growing intermarriage and assimilation, on the one hand, and, on the other, the appearance of previously unidentified Jews now seeking to affiliate with a Jewish community, as, for example, in the FSU and Eastern Europe.

Unique to the Institute's research method is a rating system of population estimates, with an "A" rating--quite rare--given to countries whose "base figure" comes from a national census or a reliable independent survey and that is updated on the basis of acceptable information, and a "D" rating assigned to countries whose base figure is "essentially speculative," with "no reliable updating procedure."

In the "A" category are Israel, Switzerland, Mexico, Chile, and Jamaica. The "D" category includes China, Nigeria, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Eastern Europe and the Balkans, notes the author, all have estimates of low validity, which helps to explain the wide range of numbers cited by various sources for the Jewish populations of those countries.

Most countries have "B" or "C" ratings, which may indicate that the base figures are not recent or not reliable and that the information for updating is at best partial. In the case of the United States, for example, while the 1990 National Jewish Population Survey provided a first-class baseline, its accuracy has declined with the passage of time. The planned NJPS 2000 (for which Prof. DellaPergola is a consultant) will provide a fresh and reliable baseline.

New in this year's article is an analysis of Jewish population growth since the end of World War II, based on estimates corrected retroactively in light of new data. In 1945, the world Jewish population was estimated at 11 million. It grew to 12 million between 1945 and 1958. But it took another 38 years to reach 13 million--dramatic evidence of the slowed rate of growth.

Prof. DellaPergola, who has authored numerous demographic studies, is or has been a consultant to, among others, the Jerusalem Municipality, the Israel Center for Social Policy Studies, the Jewish Agency for Israel, the American Jewish Committee, and Encyclopedia Britannica.

The 1998 American Jewish Year Book is widely hailed as the standard, authoritative record of events and trends in Jewish life here and abroad. It offers American and world Jewish population estimates, reports on international Jewish communities, and articles on Jewish life in the United States, including updates on politics, intergroup relations, church-state issues, anti-Semitism, religion, communal affairs, and cultural life.

This year, the American Jewish Year Book features four special essays dedicated to two important anniversaries -- 100 years of the Zionist movement and 50 years of Israeli statehood: "Herzl's Road to Zionism," by Shlomo Avineri; "Zionism and the Upheavals of the 20th Century," by Anita Shapira; "Israel At 50: An Israeli Perspective, "by Yossi Klein Halevi; and "Israel At 50: An American Jewish Perspective," by Arnold Eisen.

The 1998 Year Book also includes, for the first time, a visual essay entitled "Images of History," a photographic look at critical moments in Israel's history from 1947 through 1996.

The Year Book also provides directories of national Jewish organizations, periodicals, schools, and federations and welfare funds, as well as religious calendars and obituaries of prominent Jews.

Dr. David Singer is Editor of the 1998 American Jewish Year Book. Ruth R. Seldin is Executive Editor.

For more information, or to contact American Jewish Committee, see their website at: www.ajc.org